As service academies, Army and Navy are a novelty in college football. Comparisons between the two are inevitable, and it’s common for outside observers (and sometimes not-so-outside observers) to assume that their football programs are a lot more alike than they really are. In reality, both programs have been operating on completely different planes for the last decade, and the record reflects it as Navy has won the last 10 games in the series.

Almost as long as Navy’s win streak has been talk of Army “closing the talent gap.” It’s sort of a weird dichotomy; there are those who insist that there never was a gap, and that all Army needed was the right coaching staff. There are others who believe that maybe there was a gap in the past, but it’s closing quickly. This gap has supposedly been closing since at least 2006, according to Bobby Ross:

“We would like to get eventually to a level playing field with Navy,” Ross said. “That would be one of my biggest things in our program, to get to that point.This year, I didn’t feel they were that much better. “My personal feeling is that I think our program is closer. We were playing a lot of freshmen. We have a good (talent) base in our program right now, a good recruiting base, and we’re very solid defensively. There’s more development to be done offensively.”

That was after the 2006 game, a 26-14 Navy triumph. Considering the average margin of victory for Navy from 2002-2005, maybe it was easy to excuse the rosy outlook after a much closer game. The problem is that we’re told the same thing every. single. year. Army-Navy coverage has been dominated by this “closing the gap” narrative ever since, and it only got louder after last year’s contest. The prevailing belief is that closing the gap is some sort of inevitability, as if one program can’t possibly be that much better than the other for this long.

Except it can. Most of this gap-closing talk is based on head-to-head results between Army and Navy, but there are 11 other games in a season. If you really want to look for evidence of any gap-closing, you have to look at the whole picture. Navy went through a stretch of beating Notre Dame three times in four years, but you didn’t hear anyone talking about the Mids “closing the gap” on Notre Dame, did you? While all this gap-closing was supposedly happening from 2006-2010, Navy won 9 games three times. Army lost 9 games three times over that same stretch. If the gap was really closing, then you should see evidence of it in more than just one game.

Then 2011 happened, and Navy fell to 5-7 and missed out on a bowl game for the first time since 2002. With Army-Navy as close as it was, did we finally have the evidence of the closing gap? Well, no. Here we are a year later, with Navy on their way to a bowl game (again) while Army has nine losses (again). With that, we should be free of any “closing the gap” talk before this year’s game, right?

Ellerson believes the Air Force result proves the Army program has made progress during his four years at the helm. He believes the Black Knights have been “reeling them in and reeling them in” with regard to closing the competitive gap with the Falcons and Midshipmen. “I can’t prove it on the scoreboard, but I know we’re gaining on them,” said Ellerson, referring specifically to Navy.

(Link)

“I think they have always been a little more talented, a little more skilled,” Army senior quarterback and captain Trent Steelman said. “But I don’t think there is a difference now.”

(Link)

Sigh.

On one hand, you can’t blame these guys too much for making these comments. I’m sure these quotes are in response to direct questions about closing the gap, which have to be annoying as hell to answer every year. Besides, Coach Ellerson isn’t going to say anything to kill his players’ confidence, and there isn’t a single player worth a damn in any sport that doesn’t run out onto the field believing that he should win. On the flip side, there seems to be an element to West Point culture that borders on an inferiority complex when it comes to the Naval Academy. I don’t really mean that to sound as harsh as it does, but I can’t think of what else to call it. Why else would a coach, when talking about Collin Mooney in August of 2008, randomly decide to declare that he’s better than any of Navy’s fullbacks?

“Collin Mooney is probably better than any Navy fullback we’ve ever faced,” Army defensive coordinator John Mumford said. “Not to compliment Navy but that’s a compliment to Collin.”

Why bring up Navy at all?

Why would a former captain of the Army team decide, upon Rich Ellerson’s hiring, to instantly declare his offense as superior to Navy’s? I mean, he could have just said that he runs a good offense and we’re excited to see it, but instead we get this random shot:

“They do things out of this triple option that I’ve never seen before,” said Cantelupe, a 1996 West Point graduate and 1995 co-captain. “What he runs I think is superior to what Navy runs. Throughout college football, if you look at who is running the most advanced triple-option football, it’s Ellerson if you see the things that he is doing.”

Talk about out of nowhere.

There is a chance that this complex is more for show than a reflection of what these guys really believe. Behind closed doors, you sometimes get a different story. In a letter to the Army Football Club over the offseason, Coach Ellerson had this to say about recruiting:

Our unique methodology for culling large swaths of the population to produce talented and qualified “prospects” WORKS. Focusing on “DESTINSTION” [sic] at the outset of the recruiting process focuses the effort on the men who are likely to embrace the challenges of West Point and subsequently prosper here. The process is producing only a dozen or so multiple academy recruits and we don’t do especially well with that cohort. This year we got three that received real interest from Navy or USAFA. The more encouraging trend is the number of recruits with Division one scholarship opportunities that are choosing to come and attend US-MAPS. It is a spectacular facility and having it here at West Point is a GAME CHANGER!

I’ve been saying this for years, but you no longer have to take my word for it. Navy still isn’t seeing Army very much on the recruiting trail, and even when they do, Army isn’t beating their service academy brethren for recruits head-to-head. If Army isn’t beating Navy for recruits, then the talent gap isn’t closing. It can’t be any more plain than that. (You can read the letter for yourself here: 2012 AFC Letter).

That doesn’t mean that Army hasn’t improved, though. While Rich Ellerson isn’t beating Navy for recruits, he does do a much better job of finding players that fit his system compared to his predecessors. Stan Brock was forced to run the option against his will, and none of his players were recruited with the idea that they’d be running that kind of offense. Now that he has a few years of recruiting under his belt, Ellerson has assembled an offense that is far more capable than the one he had in 2009. Trent Steelman wasn’t an Ellerson recruit, but has developed into a fine option quarterback under the tutelage of his staff. Raymond Maples isn’t the fastest player on earth, but he has more speed than other Army running backs in recent memory. Put those guys behind a capable offensive line, and all of a sudden Army has the #1 rushing offense in the nation.

Army has settled into a scheme that works well for them. They’re a little faster than they used to be, but they still aren’t fast; there’s a lot of “turn 30-yard plays into 10-yard plays” in them (I’ve lost track of the number of times Larry Dixon seemingly broke free with NOBODY around him, only to be quickly caught from behind). They make up for a lack of sheer speed by using a lot of misdirection. They run the option, then they run misdirection off of that option, then they run misdirection off of that misdirection. We’ve heard a lot this year about “eye discipline.” Any defense that doesn’t have it will have a bad day against the Army offense.

Here’s an example of what I’m talking about. We’ve seen Coach Jasper incorporate more inside counter plays this season to get the ball behind defenses being overly aggressive in outside pursuit on the option.

That play has been a staple of the Army offense for a couple of years now.

Army runs the option. Once you adjust to that, then they run that counter play. And once you adjust to that, then they counter that counter and run back the other way:

That’s a small sample of what they do, but their entire offense operates under the same principle. It’s a good scheme, and it produces a lot of yards. It doesn’t always translate to the scoreboard, though. Army is #1 in rushing offense, while Navy is only #6. Army is #41 in total offense, while Navy is #68. Yet when it comes to scoring offense, both teams are almost identical: Navy averages 25.45 points per game, while Army averages 25.27. Why don’t those yards translate into points?

One, Army can’t throw, at least not downfield anyway. None of the option-heavy teams have a lot of passing yards, but they usually do pretty well in terms of passing efficiency. Air Force, Navy, and Georgia Tech are all ranked in the top 40 in that category. Army is 116th. That’s a spot lower than New Mexico, the team that has played games without a real quarterback at times. Two, as mentioned earlier, Army just isn’t fast. The combination of those two factors means that Army is limited in their big plays. When you’re limited in your big plays, it takes more plays per drive in order to score; in scoring drives of 40 yards or more, Army averaged 9.1 plays per drive compared to Navy’s 8.2. More plays per drive means more chances to make a mistake, and Army makes them. They’re 105th in the country in red zone efficiency, and 97th in turnover margin. It doesn’t take a turnover to kill a drive, either. It could be something as simple as a penalty, a missed read, or a missed block. Army’s relative lack of big-play ability leaves them vulnerable to the law of averages.

Defensively, Army is just plain bad. Comparisons to Navy’s 2007 defense of shattered dreams wouldn’t be too far off. Even if Army doesn’t beat Navy and Air Force for recruits, they’ve had their fair share of good defensive players over the last decade. With Army’s recruiting struggles, though, depth becomes an issue; if retention slips, things get ugly very, very quickly. And they have. Army’s retention problems have left them with only three seniors expected to start on Saturday. Navy isn’t that much more experienced, with only four seniors of their own starting on defense. While the Mids are a borderline top-50 unit, though, Army is 89th, giving up 439 yards per game. Navy fans get frustrated over the Mids making opposing quarterbacks look good, but in reality they’ve done fairly well, ranking 37th in pass efficiency defense. Army, on the other hand, is 116th. While their offense might be limited in their big plays, Army’s defense gives them up on a regular basis.

Still, they’ve had their moments. There was a three-game stretch of Ball State, Air Force, and Rutgers where the Army defense played well enough to win. Against Air Force they did, and in grand fashion. In Army’s 41-21 stomping of the Falcons, the defense held Air Force to only 103 rushing yards, forced 5 turnovers, and capped off the day by returning a fumble for a touchdown. It was an eye-opening performance, and has led to a lot of optimism among the Army faithful that they’ll be able to repeat that performance against Navy. So how did the Army defense do it?

You might recall that after the FAU game, I mentioned that Coach Pelini’s defense was very similar to what Army has run in the past against the Mids. Both teams used a 3-3-5 alignment. In most defensive alignments you have two safeties, with one on each side of the formation. The safety on the play side of the formation usually comes up in run support to play the pitch, and is blocked by the playside slotback. Against FAU, there were three safeties; one on either side of the formation, and one in the middle. The middle safety followed the direction of the play.  Coupled with the playside safety,  that meant two safeties in run support instead of one, with the backside safety for pass defense. The playside slot can only block one of the two in run support,  leaving the other one to tackle the pitch man.

This year, Coach Ellerson defended Air Force the same way. Here you can see Air Force attempting to run the toss sweep. They brought a man in motion from the other side of the field, and at the snap the formation is essentially the same as it would be when Navy runs the play. You can see Army’s 3-3-5 with two safeties in run support. One gets blocked, while the other makes the tackle.

Connor Dietz isn’t the passer that Ricky was, so Air Force tried the same outside zone approach. Somewhat surprisingly, they ended up getting physically beaten by Army’s undersized defensive line. Because the DL was going to give a pitch read no matter what, they were dedicated to shooting their gaps to get inside. That forced Air Force running backs to look for cutback lanes, but Army’s defense was disciplined enough to stay home and not overpursue.

Air Force recognized this, and attempted to beat it with a counter play by pulling a tackle to block the linebacker that was defending against the cutback. Unfortunately for Air Force, the tackle used poor technique and was beaten when the LB simply got lower:

So did Army solve the outside zone play? Not even close. Army’s last game was against another zone running team, Temple. The Owls scored 63 points while rushing for 534 yards. Army’s game plan worked better against an Air Force offensive line that averages 261 pounds than it did against a bigger, stronger Temple front. At 286 pounds per man, Navy isn’t quite as big as Temple’s 297, but they’re a lot closer to the Owls than to Air Force. Jake Zuzek is bigger than any of Temple’s linemen, and Temple even started two freshmen. The Owls were good, but not THAT good. Even if Navy doesn’t run for 500 yards, they should still be able to move the ball well enough.

That’s the problem with getting too excited about the Air Force win. The matchups are different. Sure, Army beat Air Force more soundly than Navy did, but Navy also played Air Force on the road with a pre-injury Getz. Everyone should know better than to put too much stock in the transitive property. Besides, let’s be honest: Air Force just isn’t that good. They’re a 6-6 team that lost to 2-11 UNLV and probably should have lost to Wyoming and New Mexico. I know, that’s a lot of shoulda coulda, which isn’t worth any more than the transitive  property. The point is that if there was any other name on the jersey than “Air Force,” nobody would be nearly as wrapped up in that win.

The other source of Army’s optimism seems to be their strength of schedule. As Sal Interdonato tweeted earlier this week,

Opponents combined records: Army 78-54, Navy 68-63. #armynavy—
Sal Interdonato (@salinterdonato) December 04, 2012

It’s a similar vibe to 2005, when Army entered the game on a 4-game win streak after starting the year 0-6 against a pretty tough stretch of opponents that included TCU, Boston College, Baylor, and Iowa State. There was a lot of talk before that game that Army might even be the better team, but Navy played an easier schedule. Army has certainly played some teams that were better than everyone expected at the beginning of the year, but let’s not blow things out of proportion. If you include Penn State, both teams played 6 bowl teams. Navy went 3-3 against theirs. Army went 1-5. Army did face the best teams in the MAC, but Navy played an 8-win Big Ten team, a 10-win San Jose State team, and the #1 team in the country, not to mention tacking on a win over another Big Ten team. The Mids might have looked less than impressive against FAU and Texas State, but close losses against good teams aren’t better than being able to win even when you didn’t play your best game.

The wildcard in this game is the contrast in quarterbacks, with Army’s 4-year senior starter taking on Navy’s freshman. How will the plebe handle the pressure? Even Kaipo struggled a little in his first Army game, and that’s the guy who waved his arms under center trying to get the Notre Dame crowd to get louder. While there’s no telling how Keenan will play, he won’t be the only freshman on the field. Army’s defense is full of freshmen and sophomores making their first Army-Navy starts. If freshman nerves are going to be a problem, it won’t only be Navy’s.

Army has an offense than can move the ball and a defensive scheme that has given Navy problems in the past. They are more than capable of winning this game. They shouldn’t, though. Navy is the better team. Army’s win over Air Force adds a little bit of pizzazz to this year’s matchup, since the Commander-In-Chief’s Trophy (what’s left of it, anyway) will be awarded to the winner. Just a little bit of pizzazz, though. Army-Navy is already an institution, making additions like the CIC Trophy little more than a sideshow for the game itself. Winning the trophy is important, though, in the broader context of the season as a whole; Navy’s resurgence after the disappointment of 2011 won’t feel complete without it. It’s an important goal left on the table for the Mids. Hopefully they’ll be dialed in to achieve it.

Beat Army.

Spoiler Alert: I’m picking Arizona State

Stanford (11-2, 8-1)
Last Game: Won PAC-12 Championship Game 27-24 over UCLA
It’s tough to beat a team twice in a season, let alone twice in 6 days, but the Cardinal did it. UCLA outgained Stanford 461-325, but missed a 52 yard field goal at the end of the game to force OT.
Projection: Rose Bowl

Oregon (11-1, 8-1)
Last Game: Won 48-24 at Oregon State
The Ducks got 6 touchdowns on 430 yards rushing to win the Civil War for the 5th year in a row. While the OT loss to Stanford cost Oregon a shot at the PAC-12 and national championships, they’ll still get an at-large BCS bid.
Projection: Fiesta Bowl

Oregon State (8-3, 6-3)
Last Game: Lost 48-24 vs. Oregon; Next Game: vs. Nicholls State (PAC-12 Network, 2:30pm)
Oregon State couldn’t stop the rush of Oregon, but this season was a huge improvement over last year’s  3-9 campaign. They have bonus football this weekend, playing the rescheduled the Nicholls State game that was delayed by Hurricane Isaac.
Projection: Alamo Bowl

UCLA (9-4, 6-3)
Last Game: Lost PAC-12 Championship Game 27-24 at Stanford
People yukked it up when Jim Mora Jr. was hired at UCLA. Then he went and beat USC and made the conference championship game (for real this time and not because of someone else being banned from it). I think the loss to Oregon State earlier in the season puts them lower in the bowl selection, though I could be wrong.
Projection: Holiday Bowl

USC (7-5, 5-4)
Last Game: Lost 22-13 vs. Notre Dame
Marqise Lee was held in check and Theo Riddick ran wild over the Trojans’ defense as the Fighting Irish locked up a trip to the BCS title game. USC lost 4 of its last 5 games, but I don’t think the brand slips any further in the pecking order.
Projection: Sun Bowl

Washington (7-5, 5-4)
Last Game: Lost 31-28 (OT) at Washington State
Rivalry games are a hell of a thing. Mike Leach got the Cougars their only PAC-12 conference win of the year in the Apple Cup. Washington might slip in the pecking order because of it, but a trip to Las Vegas instead of El Paso is a significant upgrade in destination.
Projection: Las Vegas Bowl

Arizona State (7-5, 5-4)
Last Game: Won 41-34 at Arizona
The Sun Devils notched 24 4th-quarter points to rally for the win against rival Arizona in the Territorial Cup. Credit goes to the ASU defense, who forced three interceptions and a fumble from Arizona QB Matt Scott.
Projection: Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl vs. Navy

Arizona (7-5, 4-5)
Last Game: Lost 41-34 vs. Arizona State
Arizona had a tough PAC-12 schedule this year, facing all six teams listed here. They did notch two good OOC wins against Oklahoma State and Toledo, but in the end, a losing record in conference play is going to send the Wildcats to the 7th PAC-12 bowl tie-in.
Projection: New Mexico Bowl

Tidbit from Army-Navy media luncheon today. Air Force allowed the Commander-in-Chief's Trophy to fall into major disrepair!—
Bill Wagner (@BWagner_CapGaz) November 29, 2012

Navy spent $5,000 to refurbish trophy and it was beautiful. Sparkling silver. Now it is tarnished black!—
Bill Wagner (@BWagner_CapGaz) November 29, 2012

It looks like there is more damage to the trophy than just tarnish, though. Here’s what the Trophy looked like while it was in Annapolis:

Here’s what the Navy side looks like now. Apparently, Bill the Goat needs some help to keep from falling over:

Why does Bill need to be propped up? Was he bent or broken off? Did Air Force players all take the trophy home like it was the Stanley Cup? Was there an accident? What happened?

In other news, it appears that the years where there was a 3-way tie have been removed, something that should have happened a long time ago.

But right now there are 5 teams with better conference records than USC (by BCS ranking: #5 Oregon, #8 Stanford, #15 Oregon State, #17 UCLA, #25 Washington) and a 6th with a higher ranking (#24 Arizona). So even if the PAC-12 lands a second BCS bowl game, Navy is going to either face a team that was ranked at the end of Week 12 or USC. There really is no bad matchup for exposure’s sake.

The other big news for the watch list is that Arizona eliminated Utah from bowl contention thanks to a 34-24 win last weekend. The Utes were up 24-17 going into the 4th quarter, but gave up 17 unanswered points. So bon voyage to that opponent. Frankly, it was the least attractive matchup. We’ve played them before, they’re not a traditional PAC team, and I don’t need another stinking referee blowing a touchback call again.

Click on through for our update of Washington, Arizona, and Arizona State.

Washington (7-4, 5-3)
Sagarin #24 (up from #34)

Last Week: Won 38-3 at Colorado
Nov 23: @ Washington State
Washington held Colorado to 141 total yards. Huskies QB Keith Price completed 22 of 29 passes for 248 yards and 5 touchdowns. And they did all of that despite converting just 3 of 12 third downs. They play Washington State for the Apple Cup today at 3:30pm on Fox. Tune in to see if they can get to 8 wins.

Arizona (7-4, 4-4)
Sagarin #21 (up from #28)

Last Week: Won 34-24 at Utah
Nov 23: vs. Arizona State
Like I said above, Arizona exploded for 17 4th-quarter points to get the win. They made the rally happen by tightening up on defense, forcing a punt, and two turnovers on downs. The season-ending rivalry game against Arizona State is also today – the nightcap at 10pm on ESPN.

Arizona State (6-5, 4-4)
Sagarin #28 (down from #21)

Last Week: Won 46-7 vs. Washington State
Nov 23: @ Arizona
ASU became bowl eligible and put Washington State one game away from going winless in the PAC-12 this season when they trounced the Cougars last weekend. The Sun Devils are a three-point home dog tonight against the Wildcats.

In case you missed the comments section last week, I flip-flopped my way into Washington being the pick for our bowl game. I’m going to stick with them this week, setting up a rematch of the 1924 Rose Bowl that ended in a 14-14 tie.

Anyway, it’s Thanksgiving Day, so we’re going to be quick about the rankings this week. Think of these as the twitter version of the rankings – short and missing all the details.

1. Louisville (9-1)
Last Week #2; This Week: Bye
Leave it to conference realignment to add subtext to an otherwise ho-hum game this week when the Cardinals host UConn. “Sources” say the ACC is looking at both as options to replace Maryland (Big East Network, Noon).

2. SDSU (8-3)
Last Week #5; This Week: Bye
If the Aztecs take care of business at Wyoming, the worst they can finish is tied atop the MWC with one conference loss (although Fresno State holds the head-to-head tiebreaker). Wyoming has won 3 in a row – against teams with a combined 5 wins – after losing 7 of their first 8 (Time Warner Sportsnet, 3:30pm).

3. Boise State (9-2)
Last Week #6; This Week: Won 42-14 vs. Colorado State
The Broncos have a bye week this week before they finish off the season with a trip to reeling Nevada, loser of 3 of their last 4, on December 1st. Like SDSU, Boise can finish with one loss, leaving three tied at the top of the Mountain West and me with no clue how they break that tie.

4. Cincinnati (7-3)
Last Week #3; This Week: Lost 10-3 vs. Rutgers
The Bearcats were punished by Rutgers backup running back Savon Huggins to the tune of 179 yards on 41 carries. QB Brandon Kay, in his 2nd start since replacing Munchie Legaux, threw two interceptions. Cincinnati hosts USF this Friday evening (ESPN, 7pm).

5. UCF (8-3)
Last Week #4; This Week: Lost 23-21 at Tulsa
Tulsa gained the upper hand for home field advantage in the C-USA title game by holding on to beat the Knights in a game that featured 15 combined punts. UCF will get that rematch as long as they beat UAB this weekend (FSN, Noon).

6. Navy (7-4)
Last Week #7; This Week: Won 21-10 vs. Texas State
It was a really weird game. Fullback Noah Copeland ran for 110 yards and 2 TD’s, Navy ran for over 400 yards as a team…and never really put it away. But the Midshipmen have won 6 of their last 7 and get a few weeks to prepare for the Army-Navy game on December 8th.

7. UConn (4-6)
Last Week #9; This Week: Bye
UConn has to play spoiler to Louisville to keep bowl hopes alive. The Huskies are 12-point dogs and have scored more than two touchdowns just once in their last 5 games (Big East Network, Noon).

8. SMU (5-6)
Last Week 8; This Week: Lost 26-14 at Rice
Rice’s Chris Boswell connected on five field goals, including three from beyond 50 yards. This game should have been an easier win for SMU than their final opponent – Tulsa – whom they visit Saturday with a bowl game trip on the line (FX, Noon).

9. Temple (4-6)
Last Week #12; This Week: Won 63-32 at Army
Montel Harris rebounded from a knee injury to shred the Army defense for 351 yards and 7 touchdowns (both of which are Big East records for a single game). While there’s no bowl hopes for the Owls, they can finish the season on a winning streak by beating Syracuse Saturday (ESPN2, 11:00am).

10. Houston (4-7)
Last Week #10; This Week: Lost 44-41 at Marshall
Marshall ended Houston’s bowl hopes when Thundering Herd kicker Justin Haig booted a 45-yard field goal with 7 seconds left. The Cougars host Tulane this weekend (FSN, 3:30pm).

11. USF (3-7)
Last Week #11; This Week: Lost 40-9 at Miami (FL)
Skip Holtz’s squad has lost 7 of 8 with the last being a particularly bad defensive showing – the Hurricanes had 548 total yards. With Cincinnati and Pitt left, a 9-loss season is highly likely. Cincinnati is first on Friday (ESPN, 7pm).

12. Memphis (3-8)
Last Week #13; This Week: Won 46-9 at UAB
Memphis improved to 3-4 in CUSA with a drubbing of the Blazers last weekend. To be honest, I thought Memphis was a 2-win team this year – after all, since their bowl game in 2008, they’ve won 2, 1, and 2 games. They could double my expectations AND send 0-11 Southern Miss to a winless season this weekend (CSS, 4:30pm).

Stewart Mandel @ CNNSI: Washington
Jerry Palm @ CBS Sports: Stanford
Mark Schlabach @ ESPN: Washington
Brad Edwards @ ESPN: Washington
College Football News: Oregon State

Stanford and Oregon State were the eye-poppers this week. Both teams have two losses. Stanford is currently 13th in the BCS while Oregon State is 16th. I don’t see these two teams slipping to the 6th-pick bowl game unless they lose out. Then again, Stanford has to go on the road to #2 Oregon and #17 UCLA to finish the season. Could a 4-loss Cardinal slide to the Kraft Bowl? Oregon State still has a home game against Cal and a trip to Oregon (and the make-up game with Nicholls State). If they somehow lose to Cal this weekend, they will (probably) end the season losing 4 of their final 5 conference games. Again, is that enough to make them unattractive enough to fall to the 6th bowl? Only time will tell.

In the interim, let’s look at the four teams we identified last week as the most probable opponents.

Washington (6-4, 4-3)
Sagarin #34 (up from #46)

Last Week: Won 34-15 vs. Utah
Nov 17: @ Colorado
Nov 23: @ Washington State
Washington became bowl eligible at home with a win over the Utes. With the remaining schedule pointing to an 8-win season, they may be playing themselves up from the 6th bowl if the aforementioned Stanford and Oregon State losses come to pass. But given that the PAC-12 won’t be fielding a 2nd BCS team, Washington remains a popular pick for the Kraft Bowl this week.

Arizona (6-4, 3-4)
Sagarin #28 (no change)

Last Week: Won 56-31 vs. Colorado
Nov 17: @ Utah
Nov 23: vs. Arizona State
Arizona was the other possible opponent to lock up bowl eligibility this weekend, sending the Buffs to their 6th-consecutive loss. Of note from this game: Arizona RB Ka’Deem Carey rushed for 366 yards and 5 TDs. That set a new PAC-12 record and was accomplished on just 25 carries.

Arizona State (5-5, 3-4)
Sagarin #21 (down from #18)

Last Week: Lost 38-17 at USC
Nov 17: vs. Washington State
Nov 23: @ Arizona
The loss to USC was expected. Arizona State was tied at the half and took a lead with a field goal on their opening possession of the 2nd half. USC locked down the offense after that, yielding just 51 yards to ASU the rest of the way.

Utah (4-6, 2-5)
Sagarin #38 (down from #31)

Last Week: Lost 34-15 at Washington
Nov 17: vs. Arizona
Nov 23: @ Colorado
Utah’s margin of error is gone – they have to win out to make a bowl. Utah certainly didn’t play like a bowl team. They gained just 188 yards to go with a paltry 9 first downs. Oh, and they became the first D-1A team to give up more than 21 points to the Huskies.

I’m going to stick with my Arizona State call. though I’m starting to want Washington more.

As I continue to do these rankings, it is becoming more and more clear how important a new TV deal is to the conference.  The current one isn’t just low paying, it’s terrible exposure. For example, two of the top three teams in conference face off this week (Rutgers at Cincinnati). That’s a matchup between a top-25 team and a team that is receiving votes and can have a significant impact on who gets to go to a BCS bowl game this year, and it is being shown on the regional Big East Network. And while that is bad, it’s worse for lowly Memphis. This upcoming week’s game at UAB will be the third consecutive week Memphis gets no TV coverage – not even ESPN3 – for a game. For the season, Memphis will have 5 games with no TV, 2 on ESPN3, and 5 on regional TV. That’s not a great lineup for a school trying to pull itself out of the cellar of D-1A football. The new TV deal will not only infuse cash into schools, but also increase the national profile of the conference on the whole.

On to the power rankings!

1. Rutgers (8-1)
Last Week #2; This Week: Won 28-7 vs. Army
Army scored on the opening drive of the game, then Rutgers’ defense and special teams stepped up and shut them out for the remainder. The Scarlet Knights forced three fumbles and blocked 2 punts, giving their offense shorter fields to work with. After tying the game at 7 on an 11-play, 74-yard drive in the 1st quarter, Rutgers had just two drives over 10 yards. Their final three scores came on drives of 45 yards, 1 yard, and a returned fumble. Rutgers heads to Cincinnati this weekend (Big East Network, Noon).

2. Louisville (9-1)
Last Week #1; This Week: Lost 45-26 at Syracuse
Louisville’s defense finally cost them a game this weekend, which is odd to say given that their defense ranks in the top 40 nationally. But there’s really no other way to put it when Teddy Bridgewater goes off completing 36 of 49 passes for 426 yards, 3 TDs and 1 INT. Senorise Perry was lost for the year with a torn ACL (just announced today) as the Cardinals’ ground game was held to under 100 yards for the first time all year. Louisville gets a bye this week before playing UConn.

3. Cincinnati (7-2)
Last Week #3; This Week: Won 34-10 at Temple
A week after coming off the bench to lead the Bearcats to victory, Cincinnati QB Brendon Kay got his first career start over a struggling Munchie Legaux. He finished with an efficient 244 yards, 2 TDs, and no interceptions while adding 71 yards rushing. The Cincinnati defense did their part as well, forcing 7 punts, an interception, and a turnover on downs. Cincinnati hosts Rutgers on Saturday (Big East Network, Noon).

4. UCF (8-2)
Last Week #4; This Week: Won 31-24 at UTEP
The Knights struggled with UTEP, allowing the Miners to tie the game with two touchdowns in the 4th quarter. But UCF stud running back Latavius Murray gained 46 of his 117 yards on the next drive as he scored the game-winning touchdown. The Knights can’t feel great about the game being so close despite forcing 4 UTEP turnovers, but a win is a win, and this one keeps the Knights undefeated and atop the C-USA East division. This weekend we get what could be a preview of the C-USA title game as UCF travels to face Tulsa, who is the West division leader and also 6-0 in conference play (FSN, Noon).

5. SDSU (8-3)
Last Week #5; This Week: Won 28-9 vs. Air Force
San Diego State effectively ended Air Force’s hopes of a Mountain West title when they beat the Falcons this past weekend. They did so thanks to an opportunistic offense that scored 21 points off of 4 turnovers. SDSU reached 8 wins for the third consecutive season and are now huge Air Force fans as they need the Falcons to beat Fresno State on Nov 24th in order to keep their hopes of a MWC title alive. In the meantime, SDSU gets a bye this week before traveling to Wyoming.

6. Boise State (8-2)
Last Week #6; This Week: Won 49-14 at Hawaii
Boise rebounded from last week’s loss to SDSU by thoroughly beating Hawaii this past weekend. They dominated every phase of the game. A balanced offensive attack paired with a defense that forced 5 turnovers turned a 7-7 tie in the first quarter into a blowout as Boise scored six unanswered touchdowns. But the game was not without some struggles for the Broncos. When faced with 3rd downs, Boise converted just 4 of 16. They did manage to convert 4 of 5 4th-down tries. Boise needs Wyoming to beat SDSU to have a shot at the MWC title, but they still have two conference games of their own, starting with a trip to Colorado State this weekend (NBCSN, 3:30pm).

7. Navy (6-4)
Last Week #7; This Week: Lost 41-31 at Troy
Troy opened up a 21-0 lead and Navy couldn’t manage to completely close the gap despite outstanding games from Keenan Reynolds and Gee Gee Greene. Navy’s defense struggled all day to stop Troy’s offense, and the tackling looked as bad as the Notre Dame game. Even through all of that, it was a 3-point game at the start of the 4th quarter. Navy comes home this weekend to face a Texas State team that gave #19 Louisiana Tech all they could handle on Saturday (CBSSN, 3:30pm).

8. SMU (5-5)
Last Week #8; This Week Won 34-6 vs. Southern Miss
SMU extended the misery for winless Southern Miss, who didn’t have a drive of 40 yards or more all day long. SMU forced 8 punts and 2 interceptions and held the Golden Eagles to 178 yards of offense. SMU QB Garrett Gilbert passed for a touchdown and ran for two more as he accounted for 343 total yards. The Mustangs head to Rice this weekend (CSS, 3:30pm).

9. UConn (4-6)
Last Week #12; This Week: Won 24-17 vs. Pitt
In a tale of two halves, the Huskies opened up 24-0 halftime advantage and held on as Pitt scored 17 unanswered points in the 2nd half. UConn running back Lyle McCombs had his second 100+ yard game of the year, picking up 120 yards and a TD on 29 carries. The daunting task of winning out takes a breather this weekend as UConn heads to a bye week before traveling to Louisville on the 24th.

10. Houston (4-6)
Last Week #9; This Week: Lost 41-7 vs. Tulsa
There’s no shame in losing to Tulsa. There is a little shame in giving up 41 points, turning the ball over 4 times, and managing just 22 minutes of possession. Tulsa’s defense held Houston well below their season average of 497 total yards, yielding just 262. Meanwhile, the Golden Hurricane’s 11th-ranked rushing offense continued churning along with 350 yards. Houston has to win out for a bowl, starting with Marshall this weekend (CSS, Noon).

11. USF (3-6)
Last Week #11; This Week: Bye
After losing BJ Daniels for the year, USF head coach Skip Holtz has yet to announce a starter for this week’s game at Miami. While freshman backup Matt Floyd came in to the game two weeks ago to replace Daniels, Holtz is considering burning the redshirt year currently being used junior QB Bobby Eveld. Either way, this game will be a matchup of two teams that are struggling for consistency (FS Florida, 3pm).

12. Temple (3-6)
Last Week #10; This Week: Lost 34-10 vs. Cincinnati
Temple is officially the 2nd team in the New Big East to be eliminated from postseason play thanks to their loss vs. Cincinnati. The game was probably over before it started, but it certainly didn’t help that Temple’s leading rusher, Montel Harris, left the game in the 2nd quarter win an injury. Temple heads to Army this weekend (CBSSN, Noon).

13. Memphis (2-8)
Last Week #13; This Week: Won 37-23 vs. Tulane
Memphis got their 2nd win of the season this past weekend. A Tulane field goal tied the game at 16 halfway through the 3rd quarter, but Memphis scored 21 consecutive points after that. The teams combined for 8 turnovers, including three Memphis interceptions of Tulane QB Ryan Griffin, who had thrown just one interception all year prior to this game. Memphis heads to UAB this weekend (No TV, 2pm).